Assessing the region's energy provision

Abstract

This paper considers the task of ensuring the energy and environmental security of regions under the conditions of shortage of traditional energy resources. The method of expert assessments has been applied to justify the choice of types of acceptable energy resources that provide an increase in the relative energy supply of the territories of the regions. A list of factors from 6 groups has been devised and compiled that includes 27 indicators characterizing the technological, environmental, and other consumer characteristics of energy resources available for use. The maximum and minimum values of the indicator scores, the permissible intervals for their change, and the weighting coefficients that assess the importance of the indicator in the list have been determined. The method of expert assessments is supplemented by a random number generator for the formation of an information field on the values of the characteristics of energy resources and statistical processing of data on acceptable energy resources under the conditions of the considered regions. A quantitative comparative analysis of available energy resources and technologies based on them was carried out. It is proposed to use the acceptability index and the environmental conservation index as a criterion for the preference of a resource. Index values equal to or greater than 1 indicate resource preference. It is shown that for the base region under consideration, such resources are nuclear, solar, wind, and hydropower. The method of expert assessments makes it possible to get an objective idea of the acceptability of using a certain energy resource to ensure energy security, taking into consideration its environmental impact in a particular region of the country. A quantitative comparative analysis of the state of the existing structure of energy resources in the region and their availability has been carried out. To conduct a comparative analysis of acceptability by indicators and types of resources, a graphical and analytical methodology was used. The reliability of the results obtained was assessed using a concordance coefficient. The results could be useful for devising projects for the development and ensuring the energy security of the regions in the context of reforms