Abstract
Assessing the potential predictability of tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines on weekly timescales
Highlights
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the major natural hazards that bring significant impacts to economic progress of the Philippines
The performance of Week-1 and Week2 TC forecasts over the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) based on these two different methods applied to the NCEP-GEFS are first compared (Table 2)
As the main goal of this study is to evaluate the possible operational application of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) TC Tracker applied for the NCEP-GEFS in providing Week-1 and Week-2 TC activity forecasts over the PAR, the forecasting method with lower false alarm rate (FAR), yet acceptable hit rate (HR) is preferred
Summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the major natural hazards that bring significant impacts to economic progress of the Philippines. 19.4 TCs exist over the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR; enclosed by the dashed lines in Fig. 1) annually, of which almost half make landfall over the Philippines (Cinco et al 2016) Those TCs that existed in the PAR, especially the landfalling ones, have been disastrous (e.g., Yumul et al 2011; Cinco et al 2016), but sometimes beneficial as well, because they bring substantial amount of freshwater necessary for agriculture and domestic use, among others (e.g., Bagtasa 2017). Considering both the positive and negative impacts of TCs in the Philippines, an effective TC forecasts would be beneficial to. In the following year, Belanger et al (2010) affirmed that the skill of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) monthly forecast systems is sensitive to the MJO phase and amplitude during the time of the model initialization for predicting TC activity
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