Abstract
This study examines the impact of projected land use changes in the context of growing production of industrial wood pellets coupled with expected changes in precipitation and temperature due to the changing climate on streamflow in a watershed located in the northeastern corner of the Oconee River Basin. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for ascertaining any changes in streamflow over time. The developed model was calibrated over a seven-year period (2001–2007) and validated over another seven-year period (2008–2014). Any changes in streamflow were simulated for a combination of 10 land use and climate change cases, from 2015 to 2028, under the two scenarios of High and Low Demand for industrial wood pellets. Our results suggest that streamflow is relatively stable (<1% change) for land use and temperature-related cases relative to the base case of no change in land use and climate. However, changes in precipitation by ±10% lead to considerable changes (±25%) in streamflow relative to the base case. Based on our results, expected changes in precipitation due to the changing climate will determine any changes in the streamflow, rather than projected land use changes in the context of rising demand for industrial wood pellets for export purposes in the selected watershed, keeping land under urban areas as constant. This study contributes to our broader understanding of the sustainability of the transatlantic industrial wood pellet trade; however, we suggest undertaking similar research at a larger spatial scale over a longer time horizon for understanding trade-offs across carbon, biodiversity, and water impacts of the transatlantic industrial wood pellet trade.
Highlights
The United States exported 4.6 million metric tons of industrial wood pellets in 2015, mostly to the European Union, including the United Kingdom [1]
This study analyzes the potential impacts of projected land use and climate changes on the hydrology of a watershed located in the Oconee River Basin in the context of the growing demand for industrial wood pellets
Our results indicate that climate change, change in precipitation over the two decades, would significantly affect the average streamflow in the selected watershed, instead of projected land use changes related to the increasing demand for industrial wood pellets in the southeastern United States
Summary
The United States exported 4.6 million metric tons of industrial wood pellets in 2015, mostly to the European Union, including the United Kingdom [1]. About 98% of exported industrial wood pellets are manufactured in the southern United States [3], a trend very likely to be. The growing demand for industrial wood pellets will increase forest cover in the southern. Several studies have examined the effect of changes in forest cover on watershed hydrology. In contradiction to existing studies, Grace [9] reviewed the effects of active forest management on water yields and quality in watersheds located in 13 southern states and found that water yield increased in harvested sites due to a decreased evapotranspiration (ET) rate
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