Assessing the Monthly Trends in Precipitable Water Vapor over the Indian Subcontinent

Abstract

This study estimates the trends in precipitable water vapor (PWV), atmospheric moisture budget (AMB), and the factors influencing them: air temperature, evapotranspiration (ET), convective available potential energy (CAPE), and vertical velocity (Omega) over the Indian subcontinent using ERA5 reanalysis data sets between 1980 and 2020. PWV is examined across three atmospheric layers (1000–850 hPa: lower layer; 850–500 hPa: middle layer; 500–300 hPa: upper layer), and the entire atmospheric column (EAC; 1000–300 hPa). The observed PWV trends exhibit variability within the EAC, ranging from −0.53 to 1.25 mm/decade across the study area, with the middle layer showing the most pronounced variation (–0.44 to 0.83 mm/decade), followed by the lower layer (0.10 to 0.45 mm/decade), and the upper layer (–0.02 to 0.23 mm/decade). These fluctuations in PWV are attributed to changes in air temperature, ET, CAPE, and Omega. This investigation, however, underscores the necessity of delving into the impacts of these influencing factors on PWV using finer resolution data, to enhance our comprehension of its spatial and temporal dynamics in the region. Furthermore, the annual AMB analysis reveals a declining trend in the study region. These findings collectively contribute to the understanding of regional water-energy cycles and the recent shifts in atmospheric dynamics.