Assessing the Link Between Civilian Nuclear Assistance and the Proliferation Risk

Abstract

Atomic Assistance: How “Atoms for Peace” Programs Cause Nuclear Insecurity. By Matthew Fuhrmann . Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2012. 312 pp., $29.95 paperback (ISBN-13: 978-0-801-47811-6). Achieving Nuclear Ambitions: Scientists, Politicians, and Proliferation. By Jacques E. C. Hymans . New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012. 315 pp., $32.99 paperback (ISBN-13: 978-0-521-13225-1). Increasing global demand for energy is giving rise to a “nuclear renaissance” as more and more countries look for alternatives to fossil fuels. Furthermore, amid concerns over global warming, nuclear power is seen as a potentially cleaner option. Over the past several decades, there has been a steady expansion in the number of nuclear reactors, and the number is projected to double by the end of the century. It remains to be seen whether the March 2011 simultaneous reactor containment failures at the Fukushima plant in Japan will affect this trend. Although most nuclear fuel will be used for civil purposes, the threat of diversion remains insofar as reactors produce plutonium, which can be used for the pit of a nuclear weapon. Matthew Fuhrmann, an assistant professor of political science at Texas A&M University, explores the “dual-use” conundrum. For his analysis, he uses a standard time-series cross-sectional data set for the period from 1950 to 2000, which tracked more than 150,000 instances of nuclear cooperation between states. At a speech before the United Nations General Assembly on December 8, 1953, President Dwight D. Eisenhower launched his “Atoms for Peace” program, which offered nuclear technology to countries for civil purposes if they agreed not to develop nuclear weapons. His proposal led to the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)—the international organization chiefly responsible for encouraging nonproliferation—and provided the framework for the 1968 Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). By 2013, 189 countries had signed the treaty (only India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan have abstained). The treaty recognizes a nuclear monopoly consisting of those countries that possessed the bomb at the time that the treaty was created—the United States, Soviet Union/Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and China—which are designated as nuclear weapons states. Signatories to the treaty that are not part of …