Assessing the investment potential of issuing companies in conditions of the stock market dynamics

Abstract

Subject. Based on the developed procedure for fuzzy valuation of shares of issuing companies, the article considers topical issues related to forecasting their investment potential in conditions of stock market dynamics. Objectives. The purpose is to assess the investment potential of issuing companies for various scenarios of their development. Methods. The study rests on methods of analysis of economic phenomena and processes, systems approach to reviewing the development of issuing companies, estimation and prediction of their economic activities. It applies the fuzzy logic theory and the efficiency theory, the method of analogies, statistical processing of factual material, the comparative and expert analysis. Results. The developed methodology includes the formation of scenarios for companies’ development based on their financial and economic projections in the form of fuzzy numbers. I constructed membership functions of the initial fuzzy financial and economic indicators. The paper provides projected fuzzy estimates of the value of shares of the issuing company and its investment potential for the selected fuzzy financial and economic indicator and forecast scenario. The methodology was tested on the case of model forecast scenarios for ExxonMobil development. Conclusions. The presented methodology enables a forecast assessment of investment potential based on the database of quotations and financial and economic indicators of issuing companies. The predictive assessment is made within the formed fuzzy forecast scenario of the company's evolution in accordance with trends in the development of internal and external risk factors.