Evaluating the activity of a chemical enterprise based on the comprehensive analysis of trends in technical, economic, and financial indicators

Abstract

Subject. The article analyzes the economic activity of a large enterprise and forecasts basic technical and economic indicators. Objectives. Our aim is to develop analytical tools for business analysis, based on official reporting data, intended to increase the reliability of knowledge about the business situation at the enterprise. Methods. The study employs methods of analysis of technical and economic indicators, intelligent multidimensional data analysis, forecasting methods, time series models, and multivariate dynamic regression models. Results. We developed tools to evaluate management decisions on the basis of the volatility of income and expenditure indicators, which enable to assess the effectiveness of technical and economic solutions. We also developed a hybrid approach to forecasting the main technical and economic indicators based on models combining the multivariate dynamic regression models, multivariate autoregressive models, and adaptive forecasting models. The presented analytical tools for business analysis were tested on the materials of three large industrial enterprises of the chemical complex. Conclusions. The offered instrumental methods can be integrated into the analysis of enterprise by minority shareholders or potential investors, who do not have access to management statements. We also recommend them as analytical tools in the field of business consulting and business analysis for various purposes, including investment ones, to increase the reliability of knowledge about the condition of business, according to official reports of the enterprise.