Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Crop Production in Uruguay and Argentina Using Crop Simulation Models

Abstract

Enhanced greenhouse effect caused by the increase in atmospheric concentration of CO{sub 2} and other trace gases could lead to higher global surface temperature and altered hydrological cycles. Most possible climate change scenarios include higher atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations, higher temperatures, and changes in precipitation. Three global climate models (GCMs) were applied to generate climate change scenarios for the Pampas region in southern South America. The generated scenarios were then used with crop simulation models to study the possible impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) production in the Pampas. The authors evaluated the impact of possible climate change scenarios on wheat and barley production in Uruguay for a wide range of soil and crop management strategies including planting dates, cultivar types, fertilizer management, and tillage practices. They also studied the impact of climate change on wheat production across two transects of the Pampas: north to south transect with decreasing temperature, and east to west transect with decreasing precipitation. Finally, sensitivity analyses were conducted for both, the Uruguayan site and the transects, by increasing daily maximum and minimum temperature by 0, 2, and 4 C, and changing the precipitation by {minus}20, 0, andmore » +20%.« less