Abstract
This article examines the link between logistics indicators and economic growth in Kazakhstan in the period 1995-2019. Factors and the causal relationship between the indicators of transport development and economic growth, using the models of total production, demand and vector error correction, are studied. The analysis established specifics of the relationship between indicators of various types of transport and economic growth and their mutual influence, both in terms of directions and the nature of the relationship. A bi-directional cause-and-effect relationship between railway transport infrastructure and economic growth has been identified according to the Granger test. It was found that in a small economy, road and sea transport in the long term will lead to a higher rate of economic growth, and vice versa, economic growth encourages the development of pipeline transport and this in turn, in a one-way direction, stimulates the development of all other types of transport. It was revealed that economic growth in Kazakhstan leads to an increase in demand for transport and logistics services and their infrastructure to a lesser extent than in countries with large economies. To improve the effectiveness of the economy, a differentiated approach to transport policy is recommended depending on the highlighted long-term relationship between the studied parameters. Our research indicates that conditions for road and sea transport in Kazakhstan should be improved to stimulate economic growth. The results of the study can be used as recommendations for developing a long-term transport policy.
Highlights
World experience shows that the dynamic growth of the economy leads to a significant increase in the volume of goods traffic and, cargo flows, both domestic and international, including transit
We considered the causal relationship between logistics development and economic growth, both in the short and in the long term for the small economy of Kazakhstan, and conducted a comparative analysis of a similar model obtained in studies of China and India, which has a large economy
All tests with a high degree of confidence indicate the presence of a long-term and short-term causal relationship between the studied parameters and economic growth, as well as between modes of transport
Summary
World experience shows that the dynamic growth of the economy leads to a significant increase in the volume of goods traffic and, cargo flows, both domestic and international, including transit. Under the conditions of insufficient logistics, the productivity and efficiency of the country's transport complex are declining [4]. There are convincing data proving the existence of a dynamic relationship between the state of the national economy and the development of the country's transport industry. Over the past 25 years - from 1995 to 2019 - Kazakhstan's GDP has grown 11.2 times and reached $ 187.4 billion, and the volume of transport services increased 9.3 times to 21.6 billion in 2019. The volume of investments in the transport sector has increased significantly – $ 3.7 billion was invested in 2019
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