Assessing the Impact of Spatiotemporal Land Cover Changes on the Urban Heat Islands in Developing Cities with Landsat Data: A Case Study in Zhanjiang

Abstract

Land cover changes (LCCs) due to urbanization cause urban heat islands (UHIs), significantly affecting land surface temperature (LST) through spatiotemporal changes in compositions, parameters, and patterns. Land cover and LST have been studied in various cities; however, indicative research into heterogeneous LCC’s impact on LST in less-developed cities remains incomplete. This study analyzed new Landsat images of Zhanjiang, taken from 2004 to 2022, to determine the impact of three LCC indicators (compositions, parameters, and patterns) on LSTs. The urban thermal field variance index (UTFVI) was used to describe the distribution and variation in LST. We also quantified the cooling or warming benefits of various LCCs. The results indicate that the average temperature in the land urban heat island (SUHI) area rose to 30.6 °C. The average temperature of the SUHI was 3.32 °C higher than that of the non-SUHI area, showing the characteristic of shifting to counties and multi-core development. The LST increases by 0.37–0.67 °C with an increase of 0.1 in the normalized difference building index (NDBI), which is greater than the cooling benefit of the normalized difference of vegetation index (NDVI). The impact of landscape pattern indices on impervious surfaces and water is higher than that on vegetation and cropland, with a rising influence on impervious surfaces and a decreasing impact on water. The predominant cooling patches are vegetation and water, while large areas of impervious surface and cropland aggravate UHIs for industrial and agricultural activities. These findings are intended to guide future urban layouts and planning in less-developed cities, with thermal climate mitigation as a guiding principle.