ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Continuous cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) production was examined using data from Alabama's long‐term Old Rotation experiment (c. 1896). Index values were used to examine trends in productivity and sustainability for 95 yr. Treatments studied were those receiving (i) no N fertilizers and no winter legumes for 95 yr, (ii) only winter legumes as a source of N, and (iii) chemical fertilizer N. Three sets of index numbers were calculated from all inputs and outputs involved in the production systems: (i) total factor productivity (TFP), which accounts for all direct production inputs, but which does not consider production externalities; (ii) productivity relative to a base plot;and (iii) total social factor productivity (TSFP), which accounts for all direct production inputs as well as externalities of soil erosion and pesticide use. Viewed from the 95‐yr perspective of the Old Rotation experiment, all three treatments fulfill at least one criterion required for a system to be considered sustainable. Output per unit of input is higher in 1991 than in 1896, even when externalities are valued. None of the systems showed a linear trend in output or TFP over the life of the experiment;productivity cycles are present in all three systems, despite a positive overall trend. An average annual rate of TSFP growth of 1.8%/yr was attained. Accounting for erosion and pesticide externalities reduced the annual productivity growth rate by 0.2%/yr. The system that has neither an organic nor a chemical source of added N was less productive and less sustainable than the two other systems, with a 0.3%/yr TSFP growth rate. The plots using organic and chemical sources of N had similar productivity impacts. Valuing soil erosion and pesticide externalities had only a modest effect on measured productivity. The most dramatic single event to affect the productivity of cotton farming was the introduction of the mechanical cotton picker. The impact of this technology was powerful enough to offset the effect of many other changes in the system. Research Question Is cotton production in the southeastern USA sustainable? How do we measure sustainability of a crop that has been produced for almost 200 yr in the same region but has a reputation for depleting the soil of nutrients, extensive soil erosion, and high pesticide use? The objective of this study was to use input and output indexes and a calculation of total factor productivity (TFP) to determine if cotton production using different management strategies is sustainable over nearly a century of continuous production. Literature Summary Most researchers agree that a sustainable system should maintain or enhance agricultural production, reduce the level of production risk for the farmer, protect natural resources, be economically viable, and be socially acceptable. Measuring all of these attributes of a production system is very difficult. However, using the extensive data available from historical, long‐term experiments should provide insight as to sustainability of certain production systems. Alabama's Old Rotation (c. 1896) is the oldest continuous cotton experiment in the world. Input and output (yield) records and estimates allow calculation of TFP indexes over the 95‐yr history of continuous cotton production. Different cotton production systems can be compared. Study Description Three continuous cotton systems from the Old Rotation were chosen for comparison: (i) No N and no winter legumes since 1896 (No N), (ii) winter legumes (crimson clover and/or vetch) as the only source of N since 1896 (winter legumes), and (iii) no winter cover crop and 120 lb N/acre as ammonium nitrate since 1956 (N fertilizer). Where input records were not recorded (e.g., labor, costs, machinery, etc.), they were estimated from USDA, Alabama Agricultural Experiment Station, and Alabama Cooperative Extension Service publications. Soil erosion estimates for the three cropping systems on a Pacolet fine sandy loam, were made using Erosion Productivity Index Calculator modeling. Input, output, TFP, and total social factor productivity (TSFP) indexes for 95 yr were calculated. Total social factor productivity includes estimated values for the negative offsite effects of soil erosion and pesticide use. Applied Questions Is continuous cotton production sustainable? Viewed from the 95‐yr perspective of the Old Rotation, the no N, winter legume, and N‐fertilized continuous cotton plots all fulfill at least one criterion required for a system to be sustainable. Output per unit of input is higher in 1991 than in 1896, even when externalities (erosion and pesticides) are valued. The average growth rates on the No N plot are 0.5%/yr for TFP and 0.3%/yr for TSFP. On the winter legume plot, TFP and TSFP grew at a rate of 2.0%/yr and 1.8%/yr, respectively. The plots using organic and chemical sources of N had similar productivity records. None of the systems shows a linear trend in TFP over the history of the experiment. Productivity cycles are present in all three systems, despite the positive overall trend. An important focus of future research will be to explain whether these cycles are related to weather, technology, or changes in the resource base. As one would expect, the system that has neither an organic or a chemical source of added N is less productive than the two other systems. This system compares even more poorly when externality costs are assigned. Organic and chemical sources of N have similar productivity impacts. How have externalities such as soil erosion and the negative impact of pesticide use on the environment affected TFP? Soil erosion and pesticide externalities have had only a modest effect on measured productivity. The no N plot indexes are not changed at all; TFP on the legume and N‐fertilized plots decreased by 4 and 6%, respectively. The main conclusions of the previous question are therefore unaffected. How have technological advancements affected long‐term productivity/sustainability of continuous cotton production? The most dramatic single event to affect productivity was the introduction of the mechanical cotton picker around 1960. The impact of this technology is powerful enough to offset the effect of many other changes in the system. This advancement allowed cotton production to move from a labor‐intensive environment with increasing labor costs per pound of yield to an environment where harvesting costs were not seriously affected by increasing yields. Because technological advancements cannot be predicted into the future, predicting the long‐term sustainability of a system becomes very difficult.

       This paper attempts to find the effect of foreign direct investment on total factor productivity in Algeria’s industrial sector. We use the classical paradigm of Solow and a Cobb-Douglas function, to estimate total factor productivity as a proxy for measuring industrial growth. Moreover, trade openness, and human capital which were the main variables are used as determinants of industrial growth, by applying the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model method over the period 1990-2019.  The main findings indicate the presence of asymmetric relations between foreign direct investment and total factor productivity in the long and the short-run time. Furthermore, the estimation results demonstrate an asymmetric interaction between trade openness and total factor productivity in the long-run, both in the short-run time, indicating that positive and negative changes in trade openness induce a decrease in total factor productivity in the industrial sector. Finally, human capital has a positive impact on total factor productivity in the industrial sector.

Since the early 1990s, discussions on total factor productivity (TFP) have become increasingly important for Singapore, and there has been substantial amounts of empirical work done in this area using both cross-country and inter-temporal analysis. This article reviews the conceptual and empirical aspects of some of the TFP growth studies on Singapore and provides suggestions for future research. Introduction Total factor productivity serves as an important measure of the productive performance of an economy for the following reasons. First, unlike the partial productive measure, it considers the contribution of more than one input to output. Second, it is important to the growth process in the long run, as there are constraints imposed by population growth, together with diminishing returns that set in as capital intensity is increased. One way to secure economic growth beyond these limits is to secure ongoing increases in TFP. This is a very relevant issue for Singapore, which the OECD has upgraded to the status of an advanced newly developing country. Although Singapore has enjoyed impressive levels of economic growth, in terms of sustainable long-term growth given by TFP, it was Young (1992) who first argued that Singapore was nowhere near its twin city, Hong Kong. This was then emphasized by Krugman (1994) who singled out Singapore as the only newly-industrialized economy (NIE) which experienced no TFP growth. But Lim (1986, p. 5) once commented that, if a country can raise its standard of living so spectacularly with a very low TFP growth, does it then matter whether TFP growth is low?' Peebles and Wilson (1996, p. 205) as a reply to Lim, argued that an important point is missed in this comment which only looks at the benefits resulting from high growth and ignores the cost of achieving such growth. This means that TFP analysis in Singapore is not to be taken lightly. It was noted that most developed countries at the same development stage as Singapore were having TFP growth rates between 2 per cent and 4 per cent while Singapore registered an insignificant 0.4 per cent between 1980 and 1992. The target is now set to reach at least 2 per cent in order to sustain a (labour) productivity growth of 4 per cent and a GDP growth of 7 per cent.2 The importance of TFP in Singapore is further reflected in the numerous studies undertaken to examine the issue. Review of TFP Studies Table 1 provides a summary of various studies' estimates of TFP growth for Singapore's aggregate economy, manufacturing (Manu) and services (Serv). Most of the studies above show that TFP growth in Singapore has been insignificant, particularly in comparison with the NIEs and other countries. After the pioneering work of Tsao (1982) on Singapore, various studies have reexamined this issue. While Wong and Tok (1994) and Rao and Lee (1995) showed that TFP growth increased in the latter half of the 1980s, the National Productivity Board (1994) and Sarel (1997) showed improvements in TFP growth for the early 1990s. However, the Department of Statistics (1997) and Renuka M. (1998) show otherwise and Leung's (1997) results are inconclusive for the early 1990s. It is obvious that TFP results can vary significantly from one another and this is due to different methodologies used and different time periods of study. The objective of this article is to critically analyse some of the often-cited cross-country and inter-temporal TFP studies in order to understand the problems that still exist in the analysis of TFP growth. In particular, the conceptual and empirical aspects of the studies are reviewed and suggestions for future research are put forth. Unfortunately, the space constraint and the disparate and complex nature of the various studies reviewed are not amenable to a more integrated approach to the article.3 For instance, a detailed comparison of various methodologies in TFP measure and their caveats as well as data problems in Singapore could not be discussed extensively but an attempt was made to incorporate these issues within the studies whenever possible. …

Total factor productivity (TFP) as a source of economic growth, has been recognized in economic theory for a long period of time. In this research we tried to examine the effect of some macroeconomic factors, which include trade openness, inflation, government expenditure, credit extended and foreign direct investment, and natural disaster drought on total factor productivity and its trend in Ethiopia by using Time series data spanning from 1991 to 2018. The TFP was computed by using the growth accounting method from Cobb–Douglas production function. ARDL was used for estimation of the short and long run econometric model. Accordingly, the trend analysis shows the growth in TFP has been fluctuating over the study period. The result from ARDL indicated that; in long run foreign direct investment, government expenditure and drought negatively and significantly affect TFP. Credit extended is found to affect TFP positively and significantly, while inflation and trade openness are insignificant. Therefore, policies such as; subsidizing domestic firms, effective government spending and making the agriculture sector drought resistant need to be stimulated.

According to the economics literature, there are two main sources of economic growth. While the first of the resources is the accumulation of production factors, the other is the part of the output that cannot be explained by the amount of input used in production, in other words, the total factor productivity. The level of total factor productivity is measured according to how efficiently the inputs are used in the production process. In this study, the hypothesis that public spending affects real economic growth through total productivity is investigated. In the first stage, whether the changes in public expenditures affect the total factor productivity or not; if it does, to what extent and in what direction it has been tried to be revealed. In the second stage, the effect of total factor productivity on economic growth was examined and the statistical significance, direction and extent of the relationship between variables were investigated. Annual data were used in the study and the year range is 2000-2017. The sampling economies were selected according to data availability, and there are a total of 20 developed and developing economies. Research was conducted using multiple panel regression analysis. According to the findings, the relationship between public expenditures and total factor productivity is statistically significant. An increase in public expenditures reduces the total factor productivity. The relationship between total factor productivity and economic growth is statistically significant, and an increase in total factor productivity also increases economic growth. An increase in public expenditures affects economic growth negatively by reducing the total factor productivity.

The first in a two-part series on Japanese total factor productivity, this paper presents an analytical argument for a non-monetary structural reform policy pillar based on the assumption that overcoming deflation, while arguably a necessary precursor to reform, is not in its own right a solution to Japan’s structural ailments. Our analytical evidence takes the form of comparative calibrated simulations of aggregate Japanese growth accounting using the neoclassical growth model, first with and secondly without accounting for Investment Specific Technology (IST). We find that the IST-adjusted model better explains Japanese growth accounting during the “lost decades” than the base-case model. The implications of this outcome are as follows: IST represents a type of relative deflation – the decline in capital goods prices in terms of consumption units. Structurally, this contributes positively to total factor productivity. We supplement this with counterfactual analysis: were deflation the primary causal trigger for Japan’s structural decline, sector decomposition of growth accounting should show leading price declines in the worst performing sectors in terms of TFP. This is not the case. When we decompose Japanese growth accounting by sector, we find that the sectors responsible for the slowest TFP growth and those furthest from the “balanced growth path” characterized by theory neither showed the first, deepest, nor most consistent negative growth in deflators. Rather, the most deflationary sectors were out-performers in terms of TFP and those that demonstrated characteristics of a “balanced growth path,” tending to belong to manufacturing (rather than nonmanufacturing) and IT (rather than non-IT) industries.

Agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change because it faces open weather conditions. In uncontrolled open weather circumstances, it's difficult to attain better total factor productivity (TFP), which characterizes agriculture growth in an economy. The study estimated the TFP growth of Pakistan’s agriculture in first step by employing the Tornqvist- Theil index number approach for the period 1990-2019. The time series data for thirteen crops and four livestock categories from 1990 to 2019 were collected from different sources to estimate the TFP. The average annual TFP growth of agriculture was estimated to be 2.14 percent for the study period, and it contributed about 56 percent to total agricultural output growth. The results also indicated that TFP growth in agriculture sector was highest (0.05 percent) during the 1990-2000, while lowest (-2.14 percent) during the last decade. After, TFP index that was calculated in first step was used as dependent variable in second step of analysis. Then we estimated the impact of climate change on TFP in agriculture sector in Multan district. For this first we used ARDL bound test approach for estimation of long run impact of climatic variables. The results showed that there are positive effects of both minimum and maximum temperature on TFP in the study area. The drought and floods have negative impact on TFP but in first lag their effects became positive on TFP. One of the important variables of climate is rain that had positive impact on the TFP growth, with 1% increase in rainfall there was 0.22% increase in TFP at first lag. Improving the adaptation and mitigation practices related to floods and droughts would be required for sustainable growth in TFP in agriculture sector in Multan District.

The impact of climate change and production technology heterogeneity on China's agricultural total factor productivity and production efficiency

Despite the intensive debates on the East Asian economic miracle that persisted during the last decade, the verdict on the source of output growth is inconclusive. There can be no dispute over the importance of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the process of economic development and raising the level of living standards. But, the question of whether TFP growth played a significant role in East Asian economic growth remains contentious, especially in Singapore's case. This paper provides an updated review on productivity growth in the East Asian manufacturing and that of Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, and recommends options for further research to improve understanding on the issue of TFP growth in East Asian manufacturing. Copyright # 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. To uncover the source of the East Asian economic miracle, the debates on productivity growth in East Asia have been widespread since the 1990s. Due to differences in data, methodology and sample period selected, recent empirical TFP studies have, not surprisingly, revealed mixed results. In an influential paper by Young (1995), he pointed out that the spectacular economic performance in East Asia was not as impressive as previously thought and claimed the economic success was nothing more than intensive factor accumulation. Using growth accounting and breaking down output growth into components that can be attributed to the observable factors of the growth of capital stock and labour force, Young showed that TFP growth (or Solow residual) in East Asian countries was comparable with those of developed economies. Young's finding further predicted that high economic growth is unlikely to be maintained in East Asian economies due to scant progress in the level of TFP. While the findings of Kim and Lau (1994), Krugman (1994), and Collins and Bosworth (1996) are generally consistent with Young's, Chen (1997) raised concerns over possible

This article examines the impact of human capital and openness on total factor productivity (TFP) for five South Asian countries—India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Nepal—during the period from 1980 to 2011. The empirical results derived from the panel cointegration techniques provide evidence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) results show that the long-run elasticities of TFP with respect to human capital and openness are positive. The results, however, suggest that the impact of human capital on TFP is relatively weaker than the impact of openness on TFP for the South Asian countries. The study also examines the long-run and short-run Granger causality between these three variables in a panel framework. The results indicate that there is a long-run Granger causality running from trade openness and human capital to TFP. Similarly, in the short-run, there exists a bi-directional Granger causality between trade openness and total factor productivity and between total factor productivity and human capital. The study suggests that by improving trade policy reforms, such as, licensing policies, and removing trade barriers, the low-income countries in South Asia can increase their level of openness, which would boost the TFP in the short run.

The article examines the economic and mathematical content of total factor productivity (Total Factor Productivity, TFP) and its role in ensuring long-term economic growth. Theoretical approaches to determining productivity in the economy are considered and the advantages of using the TFP indicator as an integral indicator of the efficiency of using production resources are substantiated. It is shown that, unlike traditional indicators of labor or capital productivity, TFP takes into account the cumulative impact of all factors of production and reflects the effectiveness of theirrepresentation of TFP within the framework of a Cobb-Douglas type production function, where the total productivity indicator acts as a residual component that characterizes the impact of technological progress, innovations, organizational changes, and institutional factors. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of the main determinants affecting the dynamics of TFP, including technological development, human capital, investment in research and development, infrastructure development, the quality of the institutional environment and the level of integration into the world economy. It is determined that these factors form the prerequisites for increasing the efficiency of resource use and ensuring sustainable rates of economic growth. It is concluded that the use of methods of economic and mathematical analysis allows for a more accurate assessment of the impact of individual factors on economic development and the formation of effective management decisions both at the level of state economic policy and at the level of enterprises. Increasing the total productivity of production factors is considered as one of the key mechanisms for ensuring innovative development, increasing the competitiveness of the economy and achieving long-term economic growth. interaction in the process of creating an economic product. The paper considers the mathematical

With the proposal of “peak carbon and carbon neutrality”, the attention given to sustainable development has been increasing both at home and abroad. Starting from the background of “dual-carbon”, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between corporate ESG performance and total factor productivity through a fixed-effect model using the data of A-share listed companies in China from 2011 to 2021, and introduces the CEOs’ overseas experience as a moderator variable (the CEOs’ overseas experience is binary, and CEO performance is irrelevant) to analyze the mechanism of the impact of ESG performance on total factor productivity. The study found that good ESG performance of enterprises can significantly promote the improvement of total factor productivity, and CEOs’ overseas experience can positively regulate the promotion effect of ESG performance on enterprises’ total factor productivity. The conclusions of this paper provide theoretical support and practical references for guiding enterprises to practice ESG concepts, improving total factor productivity, realizing comprehensive green transformation, and upgrading and promoting high-quality economic and social development, as well as high-level construction of the ecological environment.

This study examines the effect of trade openness and total factor productivity on industrial output in Nigeria. The data used for this analysis covers the period 1981-2015. The paper employs the VAR model in estimating the effect of trade openness on industrial output. The impulse response function and the variance decomposition are used to examine the response of industrial output to shocks in trade openness and total factor productivity. The results show that trade openness has a positive increasing effect on industrial output in Nigeria while the effect of total factor productivity on industrial output is found to be insignificant. The impulse response function shows over the long run period tfP negative effect on industrial output in Nigeria. The findings of this study certainly have important policy implications: it suggests that policies geared towards increasing trade openness should be encouraged as this tends to improve industrial output. This study contributes to economics literature by looking at the degree to which trade openness and total factor productivity influence industrial output in Nigeria.

The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic linkage between energy efficiency and total factor productivity (TFP) using carbon emission and trade openness as control variables for the period of 1971–2013. For this purpose, vector error correction mechanism (VECM) is employed to determine the direction of causality. A popular and simple measure of energy efficiency, GDP per unit of energy use and trade as a percentage of GDP are used for the proxy of trade openness. The result shows negative impact of energy efficiency on TFP, in other way energy intensity has a positive impact on the growth of TFP. Hence, the negative sign indicates a trade‐off between energy efficiency and TFP. There is a unidirectional causality running from energy efficiency to TFP. Whenever energy intensity increases, the TFP level increases as well. So, in the long run, a higher TFP implies higher energy consumption. Further, TFP and carbon emission Granger cause trade openness, and there is unidirectional causality from TFP to CO2 emission.

Man has always thought of efficient utilization of available potentials and sources. Today this subject drives more serious attention compared to the past. Limited available resources, increasing population and growing human needs and demands of those involved make the economy, politics and management and community organizations increase productivity in its priority programs. Productivity has positive effect on phenomena such as competition in international markets, equitable distribution of income, raising living standards, economic development and even political power of a government. However, the study in this field requires knowledge about its development process. So far there has been no comparison of total factor productivity factor in Iran with other countries in the cement industry with regard to position and valuable role in the economy. This research should be considered a step toward eliminating the deficiencies outlined. In this study, using the relative index of total factor productivity factor, the relative total factor productivity factor in Iran and Turkey, South Korea and the United States has been evaluated and analyzed between the years (2007 to 1990) in the cement industry. Also, using panel data approach, the effect of macro and institutional factors such as the role of government, the degree of openness, inflation, and human capital on total factor productivity factor is evaluated. The findings indicate that there is a wide gap between total factor productivity of Iran's cement industry and that of the United States and the trend is not a proper one. This is an alarm for Iran's policy makers and planning managers to plan and utilize proper policies and take necessary actions to close or reduce this wide gap. It is also adversely shown that interference of the government may negatively affect the total factor productivity but, developed human resources and an open economic environment will have positive effect on the productivity. It is also noted that inflation has an adverse effect on total productivity. Key words: Total productivity, cement industry board data, equal purchasing power.