Assessing the impact of climate change on the crop potential productivity in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China based on crop model and GIS technique

Abstract

The climate is changing due to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases. If concentrations continue to increase, climate models project climate change will be more severe in this century, and with significant impacts on many human sectors, particularly agriculture. Agriculture is a fundamental production sector for society, especially for highly populated countries such as China. Huang Huai-Hai Plain is regarded as the bread basket of China. With only 7.7% water resources of the whole country, it produces 39.2% of national grain production and 32.4% of gross domestic product. According to government predictions, by 2030 this area will have a net population increase of 104 million, while its urbanization rate will be greater than 50%. The total irrigated area will reach about 20 million ha, with a net increase of 2 million ha/year. In this study, DSSAT a dynamic process crop growth model, has been calibrated and validated for current production at ten sites in the major winter wheat and summer maize-growing region of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain in China The IPCC SRES greenhouse gase emission scenarios A2 and B2 were used in the simulation, combining with the Regional Climate Model (PRICES) which provides long term present and future daily weather data. Using the regional crop model and GIS technologies, the crop productivity changes of two main crops winter wheat and summer maize were for simulated 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under both IPCC SRES A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios. Simulation results indicated the possibility of significant impacts of climate change on crop production in this region, with marked differences between rainfed and irrigated production. In conclusion, this exercise successfully tested the applicability of standard climate change impact assessment methodology to an important production region of China.