Abstract
AbstractPredicting runoff response to climate change is useful in making the decision of water resources management in arid region. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the runoff of Zamu River, one of the inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Climate-change was predicted by the UK Hadley Centre’s Climate Model (HadCM3) under IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, and downscaled by statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for two periods: 1961–1990 (control) and 2010–2099 (scenario) to drive the SWAT model. SDSM predicted an increase trend of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation in the study area during the period of 2010–2099. Simulated runoff under IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios changed by -10.6% - +1.17% and - 4% - +13%, respectively. The runoff tended to decline more significantly under SRES A2 (high GGa emissions) than under SRES B2 (low GGa emissions) in the future. The linear trend values were -0.048 and -0.018, respectively.KeywordsClimate changeRunoffDownscalingSWATSDSM
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