Abstract

Introduction. The reliability of geomechanical prediction depends on the level of detail of databases covering geological structure, geometry and physical properties of the rock mass under investigation. In order to improve the accuracy of coal pit wall stability prediction, following the generalization of databases containing geological survey, groundwater monitoring, geophysical sounding and mine surveying, it is advisable to construct three-dimensional geological-geophysical models accounting for the main adverse factors, and thereafter search for the most hazardous section. Research aim is to predict wall stability according to the developed algorithm based on the threedimensional geological-geophysical model. Research methodology includes a search for the most hazardous rock mass site section by the ratio between shear and retaining forces within the established zones with anomalous physical characteristics. Results. By generalizing databases containing geological studies, groundwater monitoring, geophysical sounding by the method of electrical resistivity tomography, and mine surveying, a three-dimensional geological- geophysical model has been constructed of a wall loaded with “heap of dry rock atop of the hydraulic dump” man-made structure and undermined by underground works. The trial site stability has been predicted for the true state of mining. Comparative analysis of the obtained data has been carried out. Summary. The combination of natural and man-made factors, including hydrogeological conditions of the territory, seasonal and climatic behavior, tectonic faulting of the deposit and shear zones connected with undermining result in the development of a rather complex geological structure of the wall which includes local deconsolidated and waterlogged zones significantly reducing the stability of the pit slope. At the trial site of Kedrovsky pit due to spatial and temporal alternation of properties and state of rock within the landslide hazardous zone, the variation range of the factor of safety in six typical sections amounts n = 1.06–2.39. For that reason the objective prediction of slope stability in similar conditions (in addition to geological survey and hydrogeological observations data analysis) should include geophysical monitoring of anomalous zones origination and development, hereupon creation of a treedimensional geological-physical model, and the automated calculation of the factor of safety including repeated selection of the most hazardous section.

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