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Abstract
After the good results obtained from an assessment of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) in a relatively small subset of the Spanish power transmission network, we now present the first attempt to assess vulnerability across the entire Spanish system. At this stage, we have only included the power grid at the voltage level of 400 kV, which contains 173 substations along with their corresponding single or multiple transformers and almost 300 transmission lines; this type of analysis could be extended to include the 220-kV grid, and even the 110-kV lines, if more detailed information becomes available. The geoelectric field that drives the GICs can be derived with the assumption of plane wave geomagnetic variations and a homogeneous or layered conductivity structure. To assess the maximum expected GICs in each transformer as a consequence of extreme geomagnetic storms, a post-event analysis of data from the Ebre Geomagnetic Observatory (EBR) during the 2003 Halloween storm was performed, although other episodes coincident with very abrupt storm onsets, which have proven to be more hazardous at these mid-latitudes, were analyzed as well. Preferred geomagnetic/geoelectric field directions in which the maximum GICs occur are automatically given from the grid model. In addition, EBR digital geomagnetic data were used to infer statistical occurrence probability values and derive the GIC risk at 100-year or 200-year return period scenarios. Comparisons with GIC measurements at one of the transformers allowed us to evaluate the model uncertainties.
Highlights
Solar-terrestrial physics is a discipline with a long tradition, and many observatories and research groups have been dedicated to this subject for a long time
As modern society has become more dependent on technological systems and vulnerable to disturbances in the upper atmosphere and in the interplanetary space near Earth, the focus of this discipline evolved in new and important directions, and it has been renamed as space weather (e.g., Song et al 2001)
The practical calculation includes both a geophysical and an engineering problem because the surface geoelectric field is determined from geomagnetic recordings or from ionospheric-magnetospheric current data as the first step, and the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) flow is calculated under the given geoelectric field using the known topology and resistances of a conductor system
Summary
Solar-terrestrial physics is a discipline with a long tradition, and many observatories and research groups have been dedicated to this subject for a long time. Phenomena originating in the Sun that can affect human activity include explosive events such as flares and coronal mass ejections. Motivated by the events of 2003, the Committee on Solar and Space Physics (CSSP) of the U.S National Research Council (NRC) began to consider the need to systematically assess the social and economic impacts of space weather. As stated in the workshop report, according to a study by the Metatech Corporation, today the occurrence of an event like the 1921 storm would result in large-scale blackouts affecting over 130 million people and would put more than 350 transformers at risk of permanent damage
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