European Project to Improve Models of Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Abstract

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) from solar storms pose a risk to the operation of power transmission grids in Europe and across the globe. The European Risk from Geomagnetically Induced Currents (EURISGIC) project, which began in March 2011 and is supported by the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Union, seeks to mitigate this natural hazard by developing European capabilities for GIC forecasting and warning. Recent well-recognized GIC events were the province-wide blackout in Quebec, Canada, in March 1989 and the blackout in the city of Malmö, in southern Sweden, during the Halloween storm of October 2003. The progressive integration of interconnected and geographically wide power transmission grids is obviously increasing the GIC risk. Hence, there is a need for greater scientific understanding of phenomena in the solar-terrestrial environment that lead to GICs and for the development of systems that facilitate GIC modeling, forecasting, and mitigation. Within the EURISGIC project the flow of GICs throughout the European grid for hypothetical and real events will be simulated using improved grid network models and conductivity models for the continent. The project will produce the first Europe-wide real-time prototype forecast service of GICs in high-voltage power systems, based on in situ solar wind observations by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft, empirical modeling, and comprehensive simulations of Earth's magnetosphere. Moreover, on the basis of long-term geomagnetic recordings, EURISGIC will derive the first map of the statistical risk of large GICs throughout Europe. Of special interest is a search for untapped data sources for the solar storm of September 1859, famously observed by British astronomer Richard Carrington, which is often referred to as the most intense geomagnetic storm ever recorded. The project aims to assist European scientists as they strive for 30- to 60-minute lead time forecasts of GIC events. There is presently only one European magnetohydrodynamic code for global simulations of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction, namely, Grand Unified Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Simulation (GUMICS-4), developed at the Finnish Meteorological Institute. During EURISGIC, GUMICS-4 will be upgraded to be able to produce real-time GIC forecasts. For this development, EURISGIC will obtain valuable contributions from the U.S. expertise gained from NASA's Solar Shield project (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/Solar_Shield/). The U.S. and European codes will run in parallel to produce GIC forecasts in Europe, and they will also stimulate further improvements in simulations. Calculation of GICs in a given power grid is a straightforward problem, which has been considered in several previous national studies, for example, in Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The key problem is to determine the geoelectric field that drives GICs in power grids. This electric field can be calculated from the measured magnetic field using models of the Earth's conductivity. A special challenge for EURISGIC is to compile a simplified conductivity map of Europe that enables efficient computation of Europe's electric field. When the geoelectric field is known, calculation of GICs in a power grid is reduced to a simple direct current (DC) mathematical problem. In combination, early warning forecasts, risk maps, and worst-case-scenario assessments provided by EURISGIC will contribute to mitigating the risks that GICs represent, thereby avoiding destruction of transformers and enhancing the protection of critical infrastructure in Europe and elsewhere in the world. The project began in March 2011 and will last until February 2014. The Finnish Meteorological Institute is the coordinator, with Ari Viljanen as the coordinating person. Other European Union partners come from Hungary, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. In addition, Russia and the United States belong to the consortium, ensuring the best global GIC expertise within the team. An external group of advisors representing power engineering, education, and space weather services will provide independent reviewing and suggestions to help the consortium reach its ambitious goals. EURISGIC is funded by the Seventh Framework Programme of the European Union (Project 260330). The EURISGIC Web site is http://www.eurisgic.eu. The following are members of the consortium, with their representatives given in parentheses: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland (Ari Viljanen); British Geological Survey/Natural Environment Research Council, United Kingdom (Alan Thomson); NeuroSpace, Sweden (Magnus Wik); Swedish Institute of Space Physics, Sweden (Peter Wintoft); Geodetic and Geophysical Research Institute, Hungary (Viktor Wesztergom); Polar Geophysical Institute, Russia (Yaroslav Sakharov); and Catholic University of America, United States (Antti Pulkkinen). Ari Viljanen is a senior scientist at the Finnish Meteorological Institute, in Helsinki, Finland. E-mail: [email protected]