Assessing the effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors in the potomac estuary : Implications for long-term monitoring

Abstract

Ecological conditions in the Potomac Estuary are affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. Natural climatic factors combined with anthropogenic activities affect fluxes of material through Potomac River watersheds and cause changes in ecological conditions in the Potomac Estuary. A basic premise of this ongoing study is that effects of anthropogenic and natural stressors can be distinguished. The investigation involves: 1) analysis of existing data using time series methods, 2) retrospective modeling to link the response of estuarine water quality to changes in stressors, and 3) new measurements on sediment cores from the Potomac Estuary. Estuarine effects being considered include changes in the distribution and abundance of chlorophyll a, diatoms, dinoflagellates, ostracods, submerged aquatic vegetation, benthic fauna, dissolved oxygen, and foraminifera. Since current conditions may be due to the accumulation of effects over many years, our research considers variability and changes during the past century in the context of long-term changes during the past 500 years. The availability of large data sets from the past century, long-term information on variability in precipitation from tree ring data from the past 300 years, and paleoecological studies by other investigators in the Potomac Estuary and main stem of Chesapeake Bay make the Potomac Estuary an ideal place to develop methods to distinguish between effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors in estuaries, in the context of a varying, and perhaps changing, climate.