Assessing the compatibility of EPR rates with one-dimensional numerical modelling in monitoring shoreline kinematics along with supplying near/long-term forecasts

Abstract

The utilization of remote sensing technologies in conjunction with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) is a commonly employed approach for monitoring shoreline alterations. However, the reliability of DSAS as a predictive tool for assessing short-term and long-term shoreline changes remains questionable. Considering this uncertainty, there arose an urgent need to investigate whether DSAS can be utilized in conjunction with a one-dimensional numerical model, such as LITPACK, to evaluate its credibility over extended periods of 30 and 80 years. For this investigation, a specific area of the shoreline near the Kitchener drain in the Delta region of Northern Egypt was selected. Medium-resolution satellite images, rectified between 1987 and 2022, were employed to undertake various kinematic data processing tasks, including area classification, shoreline digitization, uncertainty estimation, and quantification of temporal changes using the EPR, LRR, and NSM tools. The obtained results were compared between DSAS and LITPACK for the shoreline coordinates of the study area, projecting the analysis until the years 2050 and 2100. The comparison revealed the presence of minor discrepancies in the DSAS outputs for shoreline prediction within the year 2050. However, these discrepancies significantly worsened as the year 2100 approached, casting doubt on the reliability of DSAS as a long-term forecasting tool. Simultaneously, this research provided implicit evidence supporting the use of DSAS in the formulation of a decision matrix for coastal zone planning with a duration of up to 30 years, as it demonstrated a degree of dependability within this timeframe.