Assessing the adequacy and sustainability of the Northern Territory health workforce with respect to burden of disease and injury, 2009-2021: an analysis of administrative data.

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To assess the adequacy of the Northern Territory health workforce with respect to population size and burden of disease, overall and by selected health specialties; to assess its sustainability by investigating changes in workforce numbers. Analysis of Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency (AHPRA) health workforce data (2013-2021) and burden of disease data (disability-adjusted life-years, DALYs) drawn from national and NT burden of disease studies (and projected for 2019-2021). NT and Australian health workforces, 2009-2021. Adequacy of the NT health workforce, assessed as the ratio of the mean annual numbers of NT health workers per 1000 population or health workers per 1000 DALYs (2009-2013 and 2014-2018) to those of the Australian workforce (2013 and 2018); sustainability of the NT health workforce, defined as the number of health workers per 1000 population or per 1000 DALYs increasing between 2013 and 2021. The number of health workers per 1000 population was slightly higher in the NT than for Australia in both time periods (2009-2013 v 2013: 23.30 v 21.79 per 1000 population, 6.9% larger; 2014-2018 v 2018: 25.79 v 23.47 per 1000 population, 9.9% larger); however, it was smaller with respect to burden of disease (2009-2013 v 2013: 82.6 v 107.4 health workers per 1000 DALYs, 23.1% fewer; 2014-2018 v 2018: 91.5 v 117.1 per 1000 DALYs, 21.8% fewer). In particular, 464 more nurses and midwives (11.4% more than the mean for 2013-2021), 196 more physiotherapists (115%), 189 more psychologists (102%), 152 more pharmacists (79%), and 144 more dentists (106%) are needed in the NT to match the corresponding numbers of health workers by disease burden for Australia as a whole. The number of Aboriginal health practitioners per 100 000 DALYs fell during the study period. Health worker population density alone does not reliably assess health workforce needs; burden of disease information is important for workforce planning that meets population health needs. The NT health workforce needs to be increased by about 28% to reflect the population burden of disease and injury. Shortages in the NT health workforce must be eliminated to close health gaps between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.