Assessing sources of parametric uncertainty and uncertainty propagation in sediment runoff simulations of flooding

Abstract

AbstractThis paper presents a framework for assessing the contribution of different sources of parametric uncertainty in sediment runoff simulations. The proposed uncertainty assessment is comprised in the three procedures. First, global parametric sensitivity and uncertainty analysis based on a Monte Carlo Simulation technique was applied to identify the dominant uncertainty sources. The analysis revealed a few parameters significantly affecting the model behaviours. Second, the propagation of parametric uncertainties through sediment runoff simulations was investigated, which identified that sediment simulations tend to involve more uncertainty than only streamflow simulations. Third, by conducting scenario simulations considering different uncertainty sources, it explores a strategy for reducing the parametric uncertainty considering its propagation effect. The proposed framework can provide useful information for improving sediment runoff modelling and its application to river basin management recognizing predictive uncertainty.