Assessing risk-taking in a driving simulator study: Modeling longitudinal semi-continuous driving data using a two-part regression model with correlated random effects

Abstract

Signalized intersection management is a common measure of risky driving in simulator studies. In a recent randomized trial, investigators were interested in whether teenage males exposed to a risk-accepting passenger took more intersection risks in a driving simulator compared with those exposed to a risk-averse peer passenger. Analyses in this trial are complicated by the longitudinal or repeated measures that are semi-continuous with clumping at zero. Specifically, the dependent variable in a randomized trial looking at the effect of risk-accepting versus risk-averse peer passengers on teenage simulator driving is comprised of two components. The discrete component measures whether the teen driver stops for a yellow light, and the continuous component measures the time the teen driver, who does not stop, spends in the intersection during a red light. To convey both components of this measure, we apply a two-part regression with correlated random effects model (CREM), consisting of a logistic regression to model whether the driver stops for a yellow light and a linear regression to model the time spent in the intersection during a red light. These two components are related through the correlation of their random effects. Using this novel analysis, we found that those exposed to a risk-averse passenger have a higher proportion of stopping at yellow lights and a longer mean time in the intersection during a red light when they did not stop at the light compared to those exposed to a risk-accepting passenger, consistent with the study hypotheses and previous analyses. Examining the statistical properties of the CREM approach through simulations, we found that in most situations, the CREM achieves greater power than competing approaches. We also examined whether the treatment effect changes across the length of the drive and provided a sample size recommendation for detecting such phenomenon in subsequent trials. Our findings suggest that CREM provides an efficient method for analyzing the complex longitudinal data encountered in driving simulation studies.