Assessing Present Biological Information for Valuating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Softwood Stumpage Supply in the South

Abstract

The uncertainty inherent in projecting forest responses to climatic change has limited attempts to evaluate the potential economic impact of global climate change on forestry in the United States (Hodges, et al., 1992; Bazazz, 1990; Smith and Tirpak, 1989; DeLaune et al., 1987). This study compares the possible changes to southern timber supply resulting from the northward shift of softwood forests to the potential growth increases due to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The study describes a potential approach to obtain the following information: Estimates of the potential effects of rapid, anthropogenically induced climate change on the softwood stumpage supply of the southern United States resulting from shifts in the distribution of southern pines; Estimates of the potential effects of an enriched CO2 atmosphere on softwood stumpage supply; and Comparison of the effects of changes in softwood forest distribution with the potential growth responses, thus identifying biological information that will likely have the greatest impact on an economic valuation.