Assessing Polarisation of Climate Phenomena Based on Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Sequences

Abstract

This article presents an analysis of monthly precipitation totals based on data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and monthly mean temperatures from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for 377 catchments located worldwide. The data sequences, spanning 110 years from 1901 to 2010, are analysed. These long-term precipitation and temperature sequences are used to assess the variability in climate characteristics, referred to here as polarisation. This article discusses the measures of polarisation used in the natural sciences. This study adopts two measures to evaluate the phenomenon of polarisation. The first measure is defined based on a stationary time series, calculated as the ratio of the amplitude of values to the standard deviation. The second measure is proposed as the difference in trends of these values. Based on the analysis of monthly precipitation data in the studied catchments, polarisation components are confirmed in 25% of the cases, while in the remaining 75%, they are not. For temperature data, polarisation is confirmed in 12.2% of the cases and not in the remaining 88.8%. The trend analysis employs Mann–Kendall tests at a 5% significance level. The Pettitt test is used to determine the point of trend change for precipitation and temperature data. This article underscores the complex relationship between climate polarisation and sustainable development, reaffirming that sustainable development cannot be pursued in isolation from the challenges posed by climate change. It emphasises the importance of integrating environmental, social, and economic strategies to adapt to extreme climatic events and mitigate their effects. This research is supported by detailed graphical analyses, with the results presented in tabular form.