Assessing Landslide Susceptibility by Coupling Spatial Data Analysis and Logistic Model

Abstract

Landslides represent one of the most critical issues for landscape managers. They can cause injuries and loss of human life and damage properties and infrastructure. The spatial and temporal distribution of these detrimental events makes them almost unpredictable. Studies on landslide susceptibility assessment can significantly contribute to prioritizing critical risk zones. Further, landslide prevention and mitigation and the relative importance of the affecting drivers acquire even more significance in areas characterized by seismicity. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between a set of environmental variables and the occurrence of landslide events in an area of the Apulia Region (Italy). Logistic regression was applied to a landslide-prone area in the Apulia Region (Italy) to identify the main causative factors using a large dataset of environmental predictors (47). The results of this case study show that the logistic regression achieved a good performance, with an AUC (Area Under Curve) >70%. Therefore, the model developed would be a useful tool to define and assess areas for landslide occurrence and contribute to implementing risk mitigation strategy and land use policy.