Assessing landscape changes in the Liukuei ecosystem management area using Markov models.

Abstract

Detecting and monitoring landscape changes are important issues of landscape ecology and ecosystem management. This study used 2 sets of aerial photographs taken in 1988 and 1996 to derive land cover maps of the Liukuei ecosystem management area. The 2 maps were compared to identify transitions among land cover types. Markov models were used to examine historical changes of the landscape, and to project hypothetical future land cover distributions. The historical changes show that afforestation significantly altered the landscape, but natural forests also extensively reclaimed man-made plantations. All cut areas were either replanted or reclaimed by natural forests. In contrast, vegetation recovery on nonforested lands was less successful, suggesting that landslides or bare lands might have a longer-lasting effect on the landscape than harvesting would. Landslides and bare lands appeared to be more likely to occur on conifer plantations. To assess the long-term trends of landscape changes, a simulation scenario was developed to hypothetically project future landscape conditions. The scenario assumed that all human disturbances would cease. Results of the simulation show that, under the assumption of stationary transition probabilities, natural forests would eventually reclaim all man-made plantations unless reforestation continues.