Assessing Land Use-Cover Changes and Modelling Change Scenarios in Two Mountain Spanish National Parks

Javier Martínez-Vega,Marta Gallardo,José Miguel Nava,Pilar Echavarría,Andrés Díaz

doi:10.3390/environments4040079

Abstract

Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs) are one of the main problems for the preservation of biodiversity. Protected Areas (PAs) do not escape this threat. Some processes, such as intensive recreational use, forest fires or the expansion of artificial areas taking place inside and around them in response to their appeal, question their environmental sustainability and their efficiency. In this paper, we analyze the LUCCs that took place between 1990 and 2006 in two National Parks (NPs) belonging to the Spanish network and in their surroundings: Ordesa and Monte Perdido (Ordesa NP) and Sierra de Guadarrama (Guadarrama NP). We also simulate land use changes between 2006 and 2030 by means of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), taking into account two scenarios: trend and green. Finally, we perform a multi-temporal analysis of natural habitat fragmentation in each NP. The results show that the NPs analyzed are well-preserved and have seen hardly any significant LUCCs inside them. However, Socioeconomic Influence Zones (SIZs) and buffers are subject to different dynamics. In the SIZ and buffer of the Ordesa NP, there has been an expansion of built-up areas (annual rate of change = +1.19) around small urban hubs and ski resorts. There has also been a gradual recovery of natural areas, which had been interrupted by forest fires. The invasion of sub-alpine grasslands by shrubs is clear (+2735 ha). The SIZ and buffer of the Guadarrama NP are subject to urban sprawl in forest areas and to the construction of road infrastructures (+5549 ha and an annual rate of change = +1.20). Industrial area has multiplied by 3.3 in 20 years. The consequences are an increase in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), greater risk of forest fires and greater fragmentation of natural habitats (+0.04 in SIZ). In the change scenarios, if conditions change as expected, the specific threats facing each NP can be expected to increase. There are substantial differences between the scenarios depending on whether or not incentives are accepted and legal restrictions are respected.

Highlights

Protected Areas (PAs) are a key for mitigating climate change, preserving biodiversity, providing ecosystem services and fostering human wellbeing
In general and as expected, there were few changes in the Ordesa National Parks (NPs). This is a rural district in which land uses are strictly regulated because they belong to an NP, two Regional Parks (RPs) and other sites within the Natura 2000 Network (1.1937)
We can confirm that the cores of both NPs are not subject to significant Land Use-Cover Changes (LUCCs) on an intermediate scale of analysis

Summary

Introduction

Protected Areas (PAs) are a key for mitigating climate change, preserving biodiversity, providing ecosystem services and fostering human wellbeing. In 1990, PAs covered 8.6% of the Earth’s surface. 93% of them occupy 19.8 million km , equivalent to 14.7% of the worldwide surface area of terrestrial ecosystems and continental and inland waters, excluding the Antarctic. The remainder are Protected Marine Areas, which cover. 14.9 million km2 , 4.12% of the world’s oceans and 10.2% of marine and coastal waters under national jurisdiction [11,12,13]. To reach Aichi Goal 11, the Convention on Biological Diversity recommends that by 2020, at least 17% of terrestrial areas and continental waters be recommended, as well as 10% of coastal and marine areas [14]

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