Abstract

Climate change and the land-use and land-cover changes (LULC) resulting from anthropic activity are important factors in the degradation of an ecosystem and in the availability of a basin’s water resources. To know how these activities affect the quantity of the water resources of basins, such as the Segura River Basin, is of vital importance. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for the study of the abovementioned impacts. The model was validated by obtaining a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a percent bias (PBIAS) of 17.23%, indicating that SWAT accurately replicated monthly streamflow. Next, land-use maps for the years of 1956 and 2007 were used to establish a series of scenarios that allowed us to evaluate the effects of these activities on both joint and individual water resources. A reforestation plan applied in the basin during the 1970s caused that the forest area had almost doubled, whereas the agricultural areas and shrubland had been reduced by one-third. These modifications, together with the effect of climate change, have led to a decrease of 26.3% in the quantity of generated water resources, not only due to climate change but also due to the increase in forest area.

Highlights

  • Water resources have suffered an important decrease in recent decades due to the effects of human activities and climate change [1]

  • The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to the 235 km2 of the headwaters of the Segura River Basin (HWSRB) that flow into the Anchuricas Reservoir, which has a capacity of 6 hm3 and exists to generate electricity

  • The results suggest that the SWAT model performed well and can be used for further analysis in the HWSRB

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Summary

Introduction

Water resources have suffered an important decrease in recent decades due to the effects of human activities and climate change [1]. Recent studies in the headwaters of the Segura River Basin (HWSRB) [5] predicted a decrease of over 50% by the end of the century Human activities such as agricultural irrigation expansion or urbanization affect the availability of water resources through their influence on runoff. Developing a better understanding of the influence of LULC on the hydrological processes of a watershed is essential for sustainable water resource management This is true in the Segura River Basin, which is located in a semi-arid region of southeast Spain, and where we can find the most water-stressed basin in Western Europe [9]

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