Abstract
Many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are prone to land use and land cover change (LULCC). In many cases, natural systems are converted into agricultural land to feed the growing population. However, despite climate change being a major focus nowadays, the impacts of these conversions on water resources, which are essential for agricultural production, is still often neglected, jeopardizing the sustainability of the socio-ecological system. This study investigates historic land use/land cover (LULC) patterns as well as potential future LULCC and its effect on water quantities in a complex tropical catchment in Tanzania. It then compares the results using two climate change scenarios. The Land Change Modeler (LCM) is used to analyze and to project LULC patterns until 2030 and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is utilized to simulate the water balance under various LULC conditions. Results show decreasing low flows by 6–8% for the LULC scenarios, whereas high flows increase by up to 84% for the combined LULC and climate change scenarios. The effect of climate change is stronger compared to the effect of LULCC, but also contains higher uncertainties. The effects of LULCC are more distinct, although crop specific effects show diverging effects on water balance components. This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and therefore contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes (low flow and floods) and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development.
Highlights
Recent developments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) show an increasing trend of conversion of natural land cover into arable land [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]
This study develops a methodology for quantifying the impact of land use and climate change and contributes to the sustainable management of the investigated catchment, as it shows the impact of environmental change on hydrological extremes and determines hot spots, which are critical for environmental development
Landslides, droughts and climate change affect land use and land cover change (LULCC) [9], they are induced by anthropogenic activities to a certain degree
Summary
Recent developments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) show an increasing trend of conversion of natural land cover into arable land [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]. Landslides, droughts and climate change affect land use and land cover change (LULCC) [9], they are induced by anthropogenic activities to a certain degree These conversions into arable land have an adverse impact on several ecosystem services as a trade-off for increased agricultural outputs such as food and timber production [9,13]. One of the key features of the SAGCOT initiative for the Kilombero cluster is the establishment of a sustainable agricultural intensification with irrigation schemes for rice and sugarcane as well as integrated crop-livestock-aquaculture systems in the catchment’s wetland [24] These changes in LULC in combination with the effects of climate change complicate water resource management of the catchment. Projections concerning water quantities are crucial to sustaining the socio-ecological system and long-term perspectives are especially essential for a responsible treatment of water resources under changing climatic conditions
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