Abstract

 Oil palm yield is very responsive to weather fluctuations in the growing season. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between yield variation and climate trends in the major oil palm-growing regions, especially in Southern Thailand (Chumphon; CP, Ranong; RN, Krabi; KB, Trang; TR, Satun; ST, Phang-Nga; PN, SuratThani; SR and Nakhon Si Thammarat; NS) where oil palm has been grown in a large plantation. Monthly weather variables from 16 agricultural meteorological stations were analyzed by linear and non-linear regressions over 28 years in each major oil palm-producing region. To evaluate the trends of changes in weather parameters and yield, a statistical model was developed for estimating oil palm yield based on climatic trends during 1994-2017. The results showed that warming trends were observed at all major oil palm-growing regions. There were pieces of evidence of significant correlation in temperature trends which had the strongest values in KB (Tmax, R2=0.534**) and PN (Tmin, R2=0.670**). The highest trends of ET and RH were also markedly increased in SR (R2=0.618**). Whereas precipitation trend had slightly increasing changes in CP (R2=0.220**) and PN (R2=0.233**). In addition, the annual trends in the values of Heliothermal Index, Dryness Index and Cool Night Index were markedly increased in NS, RN and KB, respectively. Comparing climate variables and yield variations over 19 years, the study indicated that the relationships between observed yield and estimated yield had highly significant differences in CP (R2=0.468**), SR (R2=0.735***) and NS (R2=0.579***), but there was lower value in KB (R2=0.098*) than those of the other regions. Therefore, this study indicates that recent climate trends have had an implicit effect on oil palm yield in the major producing regions in Southern Thailand. This study could be a guideline to further planning for oil palm management. 
Highlights
At present, climate change has already affected crop productivity in many regions over Southeast Asia and the South Pacific region which has increased 0.5-0.7 oC during the past 50 years and suffering serious damage from El Niño and La Niña events, especially in Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia (Ministry of the Environment (Japan), 2014)
The meteorological data were collected from 16 agricultural meteorological stations which located in the major oil palm-growing regions in Southern Thailand (Chumphon; CP, Ranong; RN, Krabi; KB, Trang; TR, Satun; ST, Phang-Nga; PN, SuratThani; Surat Thani (SR) and Nakhon Si Thammarat; NS) where oil palm has been grown in a large plantation
Average monthly ppt values were found to be the positive anomalies in March to April, June to July, and October to December detected in RN and PN around 05-25 mm
Summary
Climate change has already affected crop productivity in many regions over Southeast Asia and the South Pacific region which has increased 0.5-0.7 oC during the past 50 years and suffering serious damage from El Niño and La Niña events, especially in Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia (Ministry of the Environment (Japan), 2014). Conspicuous climate change has affected crop plant development and adaptation in a number of studied reports over a 50-year period Their impacts are becoming more discriminating than ever on phenological and yield changes of fruit trees (Chmielewski et al, 2004), flower species (Miller-Rushing and Inouye, 2009) and other field crops (Tao et al, 2006). The statistical model is widelyused to predict oil palm yield that responds to climate change related to El Niño and La Niña events in the different developmental stages of the fruit bunch (Cadena et al, 2006). Observing the relationship between yield variation and climate trends in the major oil palm-growing regions in Thailand has become increasinglyimportant.
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