Abstract
This study analyzed the variability of rainfall and temperature in southwest coastal Bangladesh and assessed the impact of such variability on local livelihood in the last two decades. The variability analysis involved the use of coefficient of variation (CV), standardized precipitation anomaly (Z), and precipitation concentration index (PCI). Linear regression analysis was conducted to assess the trends, and a Mann–Kendall test was performed to detect the significance of the trends. The impact of climate variability was assessed by using a livelihood vulnerability index (LVI), which consisted of six livelihood components with several sub-components under each component. Primary data to construct the LVIs were collected through a semi-structed questionnaire survey of 132 households in a coastal polder. The survey data were triangulated and supplemented with qualitative data from focused group discussions and key informant interviews. The results showed significant rises in temperature in southwest coastal Bangladesh. Though there were no discernable trends in annual and seasonal rainfalls, the anomalies increased in the dry season. The annual PCI and Z were found to capture the climate variability better than the currently used mean monthly standard deviation. The comparison of the LVIs of the present decade with the past indicated that the livelihood vulnerability, particularly in the water component, had increased in the coastal polder due to the increases in natural hazards and climate variability. The index-based vulnerability analysis conducted in this study can be adapted for livelihood vulnerability assessment in deltaic coastal areas of Asia and Africa.
Highlights
Bangladesh lies at the bottom of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river basin, which is the largest river basin in the world [1]
Polder 31 faces the negative impacts of climate variability and change more than the other two [25], and it was selected for this study
The goodness of fit of the regression model to a particular dataset was indicated by the coefficient of determination (R2) of the model, and the rate of change in temperature was indicated by the slope of the regression line
Summary
Bangladesh lies at the bottom of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river basin, which is the largest river basin in the world [1]. The geographical location of Bangladesh and its geomorphic conditions have made the country highly vulnerable to climate variability, climate change, and natural disasters [2]. Coupled with widespread poverty and high population density, the limited adaptive capacity and poorly funded, ineffective local governance have made the country one of the most adversely affected countries on the planet. Bangladesh has been among the 7th most affected countries in the last two decades (1999–2018) according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2020 [3]. Among all the areas of Bangladesh, the coastal area is the most vulnerable and hazard-prone to climate variability and change
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