Abstract
INFORM Risk Index is a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool that combines hazards, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity indicators with the purpose to support humanitarian crisis management decisions considering the current climate and population. In this exploratory study, we extend the Index to include future climate change and population projections using RCP 8.5 climate projections of coastal flood, river flood and drought, and SSP3 and SSP5 population projections for the period 2036 to 2065. For the three hazards considered, annually 1.3 billion people (150% increase), 1.8 billion people (249% increase) and 1.5 billion people (197% increase) in the mid-21st century are projected to be exposed under the 2015, SSP3 and SSP5 population estimates, respectively. Drought shows the highest exposure levels followed by river flood and then coastal flood, with some regional differences. The largest exposed population is projected in Asia, while the largest percent changes are projected in Africa and Oceania. Countries with largest current and projected risk including non-climatic factors are generally located in Africa, West and South Asia and Central America. An uncertainty analysis of the extended index shows that it is generally robust and not influenced by the methodological choices. The projected changes in risk and coping capacity (vulnerability) due to climate change are generally greater than those associated with population changes. Countries in Europe, Western and Northern Asia and Africa tend to show higher reduction levels in vulnerability (lack of coping capacity) required to nullify the adverse impacts of the projected amplified hazards and exposure. The required increase in coping capacity (decreased vulnerability) can inform decision-making processes on disaster risk reduction and adaptation options to maintain manageable risk levels at global and national scale. Overall, the extended INFORM Risk Index is a means to integrate Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy agendas to create conditions for greater policy impact, more efficient use of resources and more effective action in protecting life, livelihoods and valuable assets.
Highlights
In recent years, climate-related risks have been amplified as a result of a changing climate, unplanned urbanization, demographic pressures, land-use and land-cover change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation (European Commission, 2014, 2013; Poljansek et al., 2017)
To encompass a wide range of impacts and to generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales, we extend the INFORM Risk Index considering mid-21st century (2036–2065) climate projections from Representative Con centration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 coupled with population projections from both SSP3 and SSP5
We extend the original INFORM Risk Index river flood component using results from the Joint Research Centre (JRC) model (Alfieri et al, 2017; Dottori et al, 2018, 2016), which benefits from continuous research efforts and operational improvements of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) – Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) (Alfieri et al, 2013, 2020b; Bernhofen et al, 2018)
Summary
Climate-related risks have been amplified as a result of a changing climate, unplanned urbanization, demographic pressures, land-use and land-cover change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation (European Commission, 2014, 2013; Poljansek et al., 2017). Global temperature in creases lead to non-linear changes in intensity and frequency of natural hazards such as river flood (Alfieri et al, 2016, 2015), coastal flood (storm surge) (Vousdoukas et al, 2018a), drought and heatwave (IPCC, 2014a; Mysiak et al, 2018; Naumann et al, 2018; Sylla et al, 2018) This increases the necessity of inclusive development and effective hu manitarian relief to mitigate climate change risk to mortality, food and water security, livelihood and consequent impacts including inequality, instability, violence and displacement (IFRC, 2019; UN, 2020)
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