Abstract
The changing climate is posing significant threats to agriculture, the most vulnerable sector, and the main source of livelihood in West Africa. This study assesses the impact of the climate-departure on the crop suitability and planting month over West Africa. We used 10 CMIP5 Global climate models bias-corrected simulations downscaled by the CORDEX regional climate model, RCA4 to drive the crop suitability model, Ecocrop. We applied the concept of the crop-climate departure (CCD) to evaluate future changes in the crop suitability and planting month for five crop types, cereals, legumes, fruits, root and tuber and horticulture over the historical and future months. Our result shows a reduction (negative linear correlation) and an expansion (positive linear correlation) in the suitable area and crop suitability index value in the Guinea-Savanna and Sahel (southern Sahel) zone, respectively. The horticulture crop was the most negatively affected with a decrease in the suitable area while cereals and legumes benefited from the expansion in suitable areas into the Sahel zone. In general, CCD would likely lead to a delay in the planting season by 2–4 months except for the orange and early planting dates by about 2–3 months for cassava. No projected changes in the planting month are observed for the plantain and pineapple which are annual crops. The study is relevant for a short and long-term adaptation option and planning for future changes in the crop suitability and planting month to improve food security in the region.
Highlights
The West African region has been identified as one of the hotspots with high susceptibility and vulnerability to the impact of climate change and global warming [1]
We analyzed 10 CMIP 5 GCMs datasets downscaled by CORDEX RCM, RCA4 to assess the impacts of crop-climate departure (CCD) from the historical variability on crop suitability and planting season over West Africa for five different crop types, cereal, fruit, horticulture, legume and root and tuber
We analyzed 10 CMIP 5 GCM datasets downscaled by CORDEX RCM, RCA4 for five different crop types, cereal, fruit, horticulture, legume and root and tuber
Summary
The West African region has been identified as one of the hotspots with high susceptibility and vulnerability to the impact of climate change and global warming [1]. An increase in temperature between 3 ◦ C and 6 ◦ C coupled with a rise in the rainfall variability is projected into the future over West Africa from the AR5 report [3]. Most countries in West Africa heavily rely on agriculture, which is predominantly rainfed, as an important and significant contributor to their economies. It accounts for over 16% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the region’s economy and employs over 60% of the labour force [4,5,6].
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