Abstract
Global climate change is expected to impact future precipitation and surface temperature trends and could alter local hydrologic systems. This study assessed the likely hydrologic responses and changes in streamflow due to future climate change within the Alabama River Basin (ARB) for the mid-21st century 2045 (“2030–2060”) and end-21st century 2075 (“2060–2090”). Using an integrated modeling approach, General Circulation Model (GCM) datasets; the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate Model 5 (CNRM-CM5), the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry (CESM1- BGC.1), and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2 (HADGEM2-AO.1), under medium Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, and based on World Climate Research Program (WCRP)’s Couple Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), were assimilated into calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Mann–Kendall and Theil Sen’s slope were used to assess the trends and magnitude of variability of the historical climate data used for setting up the model. The model calibration showed goodness of fit with minimum Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient values of 0.83 and Coefficient of Determination (R2) of 0.88 for the three gages within the ARB. Next, the research assessed changes in streamflow for the years 2045 and 2075 against that of the reference baseline year of 1980. The results indicate situations of likely increase and decrease in mean monthly streamflow discharge and increase in the frequency and variability in peak flows during the periods from the mid to end of the 21st century. Seasonally, monthly streamflow increases between 50% and 250% were found for spring and autumn months with decreases in summer months for 2045. Spring and summer months for 2075 resulted in increased monthly streamflow between 50% and 300%, while autumn and spring months experienced decreased streamflow. While the results are prone to inherent uncertainties in the downscaled GCM data used, the simulated dynamics in streamflow and water availability provide critical information for stakeholders to develop sustainable water management and climate change adaptation options for the ARB.
Highlights
Monthly streamflow increases between 50 and 250% were simulated for spring and autumn months with decreases in summer months for 2045
The projected climate conditions based on downscaled General Circulation Model (GCM) were compared to 1980 baseline conditions at a U.S Geological Survey (USGS) gage within the watershed
It was projected that changes in future climate conditions within the Alabama River Basin (ARB) could result in positive and negative changes in monthly streamflow compared to the baseline years
Summary
According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [1], climate change could be defined as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods” [1]. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or inland use [2]. Climate change is mainly manifested by the change in global mean surface temperatures. The 10 warmest years in the 140-year record all have occurred since 2005, with the six warmest years being the six most recent years [4]. The ten warmest Augusts have all occurred since 1998, and the five warmest have occurred since
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