Abstract
AbstractAimCentral part of Iran harbours populations of wild ungulates that are threatened or extinct over large parts of the region, and are likely to be impacted by climate change. In this study, we predicted the impact of climate change on the distribution of three vulnerable ungulates in central Iran. We then evaluated future suitability of corridors connecting the protected areas for movement of the ungulates in response to climate change.LocationCentral Iran.MethodsImpact of climate change on distribution of goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa), wild sheep (Ovis spp) and wild goat (Capra aegagrus) was predicted adapting an ensemble modelling approach and under the RCP 8.5 emission scenario. We then used CIRCUITSCAPE software with current and future distribution maps to identify corridors for movement of the three ungulates, and evaluate likely changes in their suitability under climate change.ResultsOur results revealed that climate change might result in loss of 55%, 69% and 76% of suitable habitats for goitered gazelle, wild sheep and wild goat by 2070, respectively. These losses also resulted in some protected areas to become unsuitable for the ungulates. However, we identified key protected areas with the potential for future protection of these ungulates. For the three species, we also identified corridors which would persist into the future, allowing the impacted populations to move in response to climate change.Main conclusionsConservation of ungulate populations in Iran mainly depends on the protected areas. To maintain the role of the protected areas in conserving these mammals under climate change, we recommend the incorporation of their potential future distribution into conservation plans, increasing protection status of the key protected areas, and maintain critical corridors. In this regard, combining results of distribution and connectivity models provides useful information for effective management of these ungulates in the future.
Highlights
Climate change is recognized as one of the main threats to biodiversity (IPCC, 2013)
Our aims were to the following: (a) predict how climate change would impact on future distribution of the target ungulates in central Iran; (b) identify highly suitable corridors for the ungulates likely to persist under climate change that could assist their future movements in response to climate change; and (c) evaluate future changes in the extent of suitable habitats within the protected areas and identify those sites with remained efficiency under climate change
By using the protected areas as focal areas, we evaluated the following: (a) to what degree future climate change is likely to negatively impact on the suitability of corridors connecting the protected areas for the target ungulates, and (b) if a protected area loses large amounts of suitable habitats, would it remain connected to other sites with large stable habitats in the future
Summary
Climate change is recognized as one of the main threats to biodiversity (IPCC, 2013). In this study, employing species distribution and connectivity modelling approaches, we predicted the impact of future climate change on geographic distribution and corridors for the three vulnerable ungulates of goitered gazelle, wild sheep and wild goat in dry and semi-dry regions of central Iran. Our aims were to the following: (a) predict how climate change would impact on future distribution of the target ungulates in central Iran; (b) identify highly suitable corridors for the ungulates likely to persist under climate change that could assist their future movements in response to climate change; and (c) evaluate future changes in the extent of suitable habitats within the protected areas and identify those sites with remained efficiency under climate change. For the three ungulates, we hypothesized that as a result of climate change, their geographic distributions would display significant shifts towards higher elevations and latitudes in central Iran
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