Assessing forest fire dynamics and risk zones in Central Indian forests: a comparative study of the Khandwa and North Betul forest divisions of Madhya Pradesh.

Abstract

Forest fires pose significant environmental and socioeconomic threats, particularly in regions such as Central India, where forest ecosystems are vital for biodiversity and local livelihoods. Understanding forest fire dynamics and identifying fire risk zones are crucial for effective mitigation. The current study explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest fires in the Khandwa and North Betul forest divisions in the Central Indian region over 22years using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) fire point data. We found a nonsignificant increase in forest fires in both divisions. Khandwa showed a nonsignificant slope rise of more than three events per year, while North Betul revealed an increase of around one event per year. The lack of statistical significance suggests that upward trends of forest fire events may result from random fluctuations rather than consistent patterns. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant clustering of fire incidents in both regions. Khandwa confirmed moderate clustering (Moran's I = 0.043), whereas North Betul showed robust clustering (Moran's I = 0.096). Kernel density estimation further identified high-risk clusters in both divisions, necessitating zonal-wise targeted fire management strategies. Fire risk zonation was developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), combining 10 environmental and socioeconomic factors. The AHP model, validated using MODIS fire data, showed reliable accuracy. The results revealed many of both divisions in the high- to very high-risk categories. Approximately, 45% of the area of the Khandwa and nearly 50% of the area of North Betul fall under high to very high fire risk zones. Khandwa's high-risk areas mainly lie in the northern and southeastern parts, while North Betul lies in the northwestern and north-eastern regions. The identified fire-prone areas indicate the pressing need for local or region-specific fire prevention and mitigation strategies. Thus, the findings of this study provide valuable insights into forest fire risk management and contribute to more focused research and methodological developments.