Abstract
Mapping the fine-scale spatial distribution of emergency shelter demand is crucial for shelter planning during disasters. To provide shelter for people within a reasonable evacuation distance under day and night disaster scenarios, we formed an approach for examining the distribution of day and night shelter demand at the plot-scale using point of interest (POI) data, and then analyzed the supply and demand status of shelters after an evacuation simulation built in Python programming language. Taking the downtown areas of Guangzhou, China as a case study, the results show that significant differences exist in the size and spatial distribution of shelter demand in daytime and nighttime, and the total demand is 7.929 million people, which is far larger than the resident population. The average evacuation time of all 16,883 routes is 12.6 min, and after the evacuation, 558 of 888 shelters exceed their capacity to varying degrees, accounting for 62.84% of the total, indicating that the shelters cannot completely receive the potential evacuees. The method proposed in this paper provides a direct quantitative basis for the number and size of new shelter resources being planned during urban renewal activities, and form a reference for land reuse and disaster prevention space organization in future urban planning.
Highlights
In 2018, there were 315 natural disaster events recorded with 11,804 deaths, over 68 million people affected, and US$131.7 billion in economic losses around the world
Using point of interest (POI) data, and Python programming language, we explored the distribution of shelter demand and shelter status after an evacuation simulation in the downtown areas of Guangzhou
In addition to the working population in various industries, the people who are present during the daytime include the elderly, primary and secondary school students, vocational and technical school students, college students, and inpatients in general hospitals, of which the number of the elderly was estimated using the proportion in the community, which is 7.9% according to the Main Data Bulletin of 2015 National 1% Population Sampling Survey in Guangzhou released in 2016; other types of population data were obtained from the statistical yearbooks of each district
Summary
In 2018, there were 315 natural disaster events recorded with 11,804 deaths, over 68 million people affected, and US$131.7 billion in economic losses around the world. An emergency shelter is a facility where government agencies or pre-established voluntary organizations conduct assessments and provide disaster services for evacuees who do not have destinations. These facilities are able to accommodate people and provide food and water, as well as basic first aid, pet shelter (as appropriate), health support, and basic disaster services [5]. Since the users of the shelters are citizens, a key issue during possible evacuation activity is determining the spatial distribution of potential evacuees for emergency shelter demand, which is directly related to the rationality of shelter locations and evacuation efficiency, that is, whether all the shelters in the city can provide refuge for people at a reasonable evacuation distance and time during a disaster [8,9,12]
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