Assessing effects of renewable deployment on emissions in the Saudi power sector until 2040 using integer optimization

Abstract

We quantify the impacts of renewable deployment on carbon emissions and natural gas supply in the Saudi power sector. A capacity expansion model, which simultaneously considers generation and transmission builds covering a planning horizon up to 2040, was created. The simulated scenarios, which entailed retiring liquid fuels from the Saudi power sector and accounted for different gas prices, consider the following candidate build technologies: nuclear, gas, solar photovoltaics, wind, concentrated solar power with storage, and battery storage. Renewables can reduce carbon emissions by 66 million tons to 114 million tons (25–41 %) by 2040 depending on the gas price. The abatement costs were estimated to range between 20 $/ton and 50 $/ton of carbon dioxide. Within Saudi Arabia, renewable deployment can also defer national gas supply expansion plans but not investments in expanding domestic gas transport capacities. Finally, under certain conditions when deploying significant renewable capacity, better transmission interconnection between regions manages renewable intermittency more cost-effectively than storage deployment.