Assessing economic resilience in aviation system disruptions based on CGE model

Abstract

This study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic resilience of Shanghai's aviation system disruption caused by Typhoon Lekima. The research integrates advanced modules for disaster shock and economic resilience, providing a comprehensive framework to evaluate economic resilience tactics and their effectiveness. Specially, the disaster shock module is designed to account for perturbations in both commodity flow and passenger flow, and the economic resilience module incorporates both inherent and adaptive resilience tactics. The results show the following. First, Typhoon Lekima significantly impacted Shanghai's aviation system, resulting in substantial GDP losses of 0.52 %, decreased government revenue by 0.29 %, and reduced total investment in the base scenario. Second, the implementation of resilience tactics, both inherent and adaptive, mitigated these losses. Inherent resilience reduced potential GDP losses by 0.29 % in the Shanghai region. Adaptive resilience tactics, such as flight rescheduling, flight diversion, and effective management processes, though initially suppressing GDP due to resource reallocation towards recovery efforts, ultimately enhanced the system's overall resilience. Third, traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities, especially in the regional output and value added. The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation, storage, and postal service, and wholesale and retail trade. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in the aviation industry, highlighting the necessity of resilience tactics to mitigate the economic impacts of future disruptions.