Abstract
AbstractThe aim of this study is the assessment of desertification risk for a typical Mediterranean island, in the frame of climate change and the application of good agricultural practices. Based on the MEDALUS Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) approach, the sensitivity in desertification is estimated by employing 15 quantitative parameters divided in to four main quality indices: climate, vegetation, soil, and management quality. The methodology applied for a baseline scenario (current conditions), two future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and a soil quality improvement scenario. According to the results, more than 13% of the island's area is characterized as critically sensitive to desertification in the current conditions. This percentage will increase in the future under both the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, where the critical areas will rise above to 15%. By applying the soil quality improvement scenario simultaneously with the climate change scenarios, a slight mitigation of desertification risk in the future could be achieved. The methodology developed in this study may be used to assess desertification process under various climate, soil, and land use management scenarios in regions of the Mediterranean Sea.
Highlights
Land degradation is the ‘reduction or loss in the biological or economic productive capacity of the land caused by human activities and often magnified by the impacts of climate change’ (UNCCD )
In terms of climate sensitivity (Figure 3), the majority of the island was mapped as having low to moderate climatic sensitivity, except for a part of the eastern island that was mapped as having high sensitivity under the current conditions (Figure 3(a))
This corresponds to an average trend which can differentiate depending on the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used and the specific area under study
Summary
Land degradation is the ‘reduction or loss in the biological or economic productive capacity of the land caused by human activities and often magnified by the impacts of climate change’ (UNCCD ). The Eastern Mediterranean area is considered as one of the main ‘hot spots for climate change’ at a global scale, meaning that climatic factors in this region are especially susceptible to climate change, a fact that may increase the desertification risk (Türkeş ; Kourgialas ). The results of many climate model simulations, under various CO2 emission scenarios, showed that temperatures in the Mediterranean are projected to rise significantly, while precipitation is projected to decrease These trends could significantly affect the risk of desertification at specific areas in the Mediterranean region (Giorgi & Bi ; Giorgi & Lionello ; Zanis et al ). Organic matter and erosion by water are two important factors in terms of soil quality and desertification risk Organic matter affects both the chemical and physical properties of the soil (soil structure, moisture, and nutrient holding capacity and activity of soil organisms) (Montanaro et al ). Soil erosion, especially in arid and semi-arid lands, contributes to soil degradation, which in turn affects the sustainable agricultural land use and productivity (Lal )
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