Assessing climate risk to cassava (Manihot esculenta) yield based on rainfed

Abstract

Sowing of cassava is frequently encountered with lack of irrigation water due to the occurrence of meteorological drought, resulting in the decline of yields or even complete crop failure. This research was examined during 2000 to 2019 based on the Crop Wat model to predict cassava yield in the cultivation regions of Tanh Linh district in the context of climate change (CCC). The performance of applied model was valued based on the climate data, soil and crop management during the studied period. The valued results stated that error indices (RMSE = 0.26 ÷ 0.34, R2 = 0.83 ÷ 0.912 and d = 0.78 ÷ 0.88) proved the Crop Wat model's efficiency for simulating cassava yield across the study area. The simulation showed that the optimal cultivation entrance (OCE) varied from 5th to 22nd April, when the cassava yield achieved up to 46.4 ton per ha for spring crop and 42.3 ton per ha for summer crop from 17th to 24th of April. The results indicated that precipitation strongly influenced the cultivation processes as well as cassava yield in the study area. Based on the finding, it can be stated that cultivation seasonal of main cassava crops is not suitable to the weather conditions. In general, farmers need to alter in the cultivation seasonal to minimize the adverse effects of precipitation factor as well as contribute to improve crop yield.