Climate change impacts on rice cultivation paddies in the Plain of Reeds, Vietnam

Abstract

Severe alterations in rainfall patterns have led to a shortage of irrigation water in rice paddies, resulting in income decline and spontaneous migration to urban centers. Recognizing the crucial significance of irrigation water for rice cultivation in the Plain of Reeds (PORs), this study aims to assess the impacts of rainfall characteristics alteration on rice yield in the concern of climate variation. The study focuses on variations in rainfall characteristics and their changing trends across the PORs. Non-parametric statistical approaches such as Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are employed for data analysis. The study utilizes daily rainfall data spanning 38 years (1985-2022) from the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting (NCHF). The results demonstrate significant changes in rainfall characteristics such as rainfall in rainy season (RRS), date of the rainy season onset (DRSO) and date of the rainy season cessation (DRSC). Rice productivity exhibits substantial changes, with increases during La-Nina years and significant decreases during strong El-Niño events across the study area. The findings provide valuable insights for discussing and formulating policies on adaptive agricultural production methods in response to changing climate conditions, ensuring sustainable crop production in the region.