Abstract
Changes in climate are generally defined as differences between means. The autocorrelation usually encountered in geophysical series and the implied ‘persistence’, or reduced number of independent observations, tend to render significance tests of mean differences inconclusive until a considerable amount of data has accumulated, by which time a climatic change could be well under way. A more efficient alternative approach is provided by small-sample variances. Under slightly idealized conditions their frequency distribution is of the chi-square type with a number of degrees of freedom that measures the persistence in the series and can be monitored on a short time scale with a sequential sampling procedure.
Published Version
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