Assessing climate change risk: An index proposal for Mexico City

Abstract

This article reviews risk indices and indicators to explore different ways of measuring urban vulnerability and risk to climate change. The compilation of these indices and indicators allowed the construction of a toolbox (with indicators of hazard, exposure, sensitivity, adaptative capacities, and vulnerability), which offers a consistent conceptual and methodological framework and a set of potentially valuable indicators that may guide future research. Such toolbox is put into practice with the development of an Urban Risk Index for Climate Change (URICC) tested for Mexico City. To develop the URICC, indicators were chosen from the toolbox that were significant for the case study, repeated in at least two of the reviewed works, and with data availability. The URICC –measured at the municipal level and the Basic Geostatistical Areas–, evaluates advances or setbacks concerning the national goal of reducing 50% vulnerability to climate change by 2030 and offers a comparative analysis of climate change risk by 2030 among the 16 municipalities that comprise Mexico City. The findings show that Milpa Alta municipality will experience the most significant setbacks by 2030, while Iztapalapa encounters the highest risk across municipalities. The methods and scales used to assess risk are determinant in producing different results. Assessing risk at the finest scale possible allows identifying specific neighborhood requiring priority interventions. We conclude by reflecting on how the conceptual evolution from vulnerability to risk has impacted the elaboration of risk indices and on the strengths and limitations of our framework.