Assessing and predicting changes of ecosystem service values in response to land use/land cover dynamics in Ibb City, Yemen: a three-decade analysis and future outlook

Abstract

ABSTRACT Assessing ecosystem services values (ESV) within land use/land cover (LULC) changes is crucial for promoting human well-being and sustainable development of regional ecosystems. Yet, the spatial relationship between LULC changes and ecosystem services is still unclear in Yemen. This study aimed to assess the impacts of LULC changes on ESV in Ibb City, over three decades (1990–2020), and to predict the ESV changes in 2050. The hybrid land use classification technique for classifying Landsat images, the CA-Markov model for LULC prediction, and the benefit transfer method (BTM) for assessment ESV were employed. Our findings revealed that there was a continuous increase in built-up areas and barren land, with a decrease in cultivated land and grassland, which are predicted to continue for the next 30 years. Consequently, the total ESV has decreased from US$ 68.5 × 106 in 1990 to US$ 65.2 × 106 in 2020 and is expected to further reduce to US$ 61.2 × 106 by 2050, reflecting the impact of urban expansion and socio-economic activities on ESV. The study provides insights for future ESV monitoring, which will contribute to the formulation of effective land-use strategies for more sustainable ecosystem services, particularly in rapidly urbanizing data-limited regions.