Assessing and explaining rising global carbon sink capacity in karst ecosystems

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Global karst vegetation is crucial for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. However, research on the carbon sink capacity of vegetation and its potential driving mechanisms across different geographic types of global karst remains scant. This research delineates the trend characteristics and differences of net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) across various bedrock and climatic zones within global karst landscapes. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), Neural Network fitting, and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling were utilized to investigate the nonlinear impacts and underlying mechanisms exerted by the explanatory variables on NPP, Rh, and NEP. The findings indicate that from 1981 to 2019, the rates of increase in NPP (2.02 gC·m⁻2 yr⁻1), Rh (1.47 gC·m⁻2 yr⁻1), and NEP (0.54 gC·m⁻2 yr⁻1) were marginally higher in global karst regions compared to non-karst areas. Additionally, when contrasted with various bedrock types, the differences in mean values and trends of these three indicators were more pronounced across different climatic zones of karst areas. XGBoost effectively captures the nonlinear relationship between NEP and its explanatory variables, while SHAP provides a detailed explanation of the contribution and interaction of these variables. The leaf area index (LAI) was the major contributor to NEP. Additionally, the nonlinear effects of individual critical drivers on NEP varied across different aridity gradients. The cascade effect of explanatory variables on NEP follows a pathway where geography affects climate, climate change subsequently alters vegetation characteristics, and these changes in vegetation directly drive NPP and Rh, ultimately leading to an indirect impact on NEP. This impact pathway exhibits minimal difference across different bedrock and climate types. This study enhances our comprehension of the role of vegetation carbon sinks and their underlying mechanisms across various bedrock and climate types in global karst regions.