Artificial Neural Network Prediction of Airport Pavement Moduli Using Interpolated Surface Deflection Data

Abstract

Establishing the structural integrity of an airport pavement is crucial to assess its remaining life and implement strategies or priorities for action. In this context, the elastic modulus represents an effective indicator of the condition of the pavement which can be calculated through back-calculation procedures starting from surface deflections, obtained from a non-destructive test (such as the Heavy Weight Deflectometer). Nevertheless, the conventional inverse engineering analysis involves the use of an axial-symmetric pavement finite-element program able to evaluate stiffness values exclusively at the deflection measuring points. This study presents an alternative methodology for spatial modelling of the load- bearing capacity of the runway surface pavement layer from deflection data measured at specific points, using Shallow Artificial Neural Networks. The search of the optimal neural model hyperparameters has been addressed through a Bayesian Optimization procedure and a 5-fold cross-validation has been implemented for a fair performance evaluation, given the limited number of deflection measures available. Once the optimal model has been defined, the measured surface deflection data were linearly interpolated and resampled gridding data were used as a new input matrix of the neural model to predict the expected value of elastic moduli at non-sampled points on the runway. The optimal BO model has returned very satisfactory results with a value of Pearson Coefficient R averaged over 5-fold equal to 0.96597 and of Mean Squared Error averaged over 5-fold equal to 0.01849. In such a way, a contour map of the runway stiffness has been drawn, to provide a support tool for the planning of intervention priorities.