Artificial Neural Network-Based Prediction Model Back Propagation on Blood Demand and Blood Supply

Abstract

The balance between blood demand and supply at the Indonesian Red Cross Blood Transfusion Unit (UTD-PMI) is crucial. This condition must be maintained to reduce unused or expired blood supplies. Despite the situation in UTD-PMI, where the blood supply exceeds demand, there is still a shortage of blood when needed by patients. This research aims to model the prediction of blood demand and supply for each blood type using the Back Propagation artificial neural network approach. Data from the last 3 years, from 2020 to 2022, were utilized in this research process. There are three stages in this research process. The first stage involves the training process, using data from January 2020 to December 2021. The testing process utilizes data from January 2021 to December 2022. The prediction process involves displaying the forecasted data for the next 12 months from January to December 2023. The accuracy of the calculations is assessed using the mean square error (MSE). Ultimately, the research results present the prediction model for the four types of blood with respect to the demand and supply. These findings can serve as a reference to regulate future blood donation activities carried out by the UTD-PMI.