Artificial Intelligence-Based Improvement of Empirical Methods for Accurate Global Solar Radiation Forecast: Development and Comparative Analysis

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has expanded its potential in environmental and renewable energy applications, particularly in the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) as the most widely used technique. To address the shortage of solar measurement in various places worldwide, several solar radiation methods have been developed to forecast global solar radiation (GSR). With this consideration, this study aims to develop temperature-based GSR models using a commonly utilized approach in machine learning techniques, ANNs, to predict GSR using just temperature data. It also compares the performance of these models to the commonly used empirical technique. Additionally, it develops precise GSR models for five new sites and the entire region, which currently lacks AI-based models despite the presence of proposed solar energy plants in the area. The study also examines the impact of varying lengths of validation datasets on solar radiation models’ prediction and accuracy, which has received little attention. Furthermore, it investigates different ANN architectures for GSR estimation and introduces a comprehensive comparative study. The findings indicate that the most advanced models of both methods accurately predict GSR, with coefficient of determination, R2, values ranging from 96% to 98%. Moreover, the local and general formulas of the empirical model exhibit comparable performance at non-coastal sites. Conversely, the local and general ANN-based models perform almost identically, with a high ability to forecast GSR in any location, even during the winter months. Additionally, ANN architectures with fewer neurons in their single hidden layer generally outperform those with more. Furthermore, the efficacy and precision of the models, particularly ANN-based ones, are minimally impacted by the size of the validation data sets. This study also reveals that the performance of the empirical models was significantly influenced by weather conditions such as clouds and rain, especially at coastal sites. In contrast, the ANN-based models were less impacted by such weather variations, with a performance that was approximately 7% better than the empirical ones at coastal sites. The best-developed models, particularly the ANN-based models, are thus highly recommended. They enable the precise and rapid forecast of GSR, which is useful in the design and performance evaluation of various solar applications, with the temperature data continuously and easily recorded for various purposes.