Artificial Intelligence and Cross-Domain Warfare: Balance of Power and Unintended Escalation

Abstract

ABSTRACT In what ways are Artificial Intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and traditional military conflict are connected? I examine how AI affects the relationship between cyber and military operations that states carry out. The analysis indicates that, while AI is unlikely to become a major cause of cross-domain war in the near future, it is likely to affect its likelihood in two ways. First, AI is likely to cause peacetime change in the balance of cyber and military power; they reshape the distribution of military capability between nations, which in turn affect the likelihood of cyberwar. Second, limitations with AI programs are likely to increase the chance of inadvertent conflict. This is not because state actors will heed AI recommendations on the use of force but because AI's programmatical flaws, such as bias toward minorities and confounding problems, will drive state actors into disagreement even when they do not wish to.