ARMO: automated and reliable multi-objective model for lymph node metastasis prediction in head and neck cancer

Abstract

Objective. Accurate diagnosis of lymph node metastasis (LNM) is critical in treatment management for patients with head and neck cancer. Positron emission tomography and computed tomography are routinely used for identifying LNM status. However, for small or less fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) avid nodes, there are always uncertainties in LNM diagnosis. We are aiming to develop a reliable prediction model is for identifying LNM. Approach. In this study, a new automated and reliable multi-objective learning model (ARMO) is proposed. In ARMO, a multi-objective model is introduced to obtain balanced sensitivity and specificity. Meanwhile, confidence is calibrated by introducing individual reliability, whilst the model uncertainty is estimated by a newly defined overall reliability in ARMO. In the training stage, a Pareto-optimal model set is generated. Then all the Pareto-optimal models are used, and a reliable fusion strategy that introduces individual reliability is developed for calibrating the confidence of each output. The overall reliability is calculated to estimate the model uncertainty for each test sample. Main results. The experimental results demonstrated that ARMO obtained more promising results, which the area under the curve, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity can achieve 0.97, 0.93, 0.88 and 0.94, respectively. Meanwhile, based on calibrated confidence and overall reliability, clinicians could pay particular attention to highly uncertain predictions. Significance. In this study, we developed a unified model that can achieve balanced prediction, confidence calibration and uncertainty estimation simultaneously. The experimental results demonstrated that ARMO can obtain accurate and reliable prediction performance.